Gold buyers travelling between the UAE and India are increasingly discovering that Dubai continues to be the more economical market for jewellery and bullion acquisitions, as escalating import duties and the depreciation of the rupee persist in driving prices upward in India. The price gap has widened sharply in 2026 following India’s increase in customs duty on gold imports from 6 per cent to 15 per cent, effective May 13, as reported. Simultaneously, the Indian rupee has depreciated approximately 7 per cent this year, exacerbating the effect of increasing global bullion prices on domestic retail rates. On Tuesday, the gold prices in the UAE were approximately Dh504.75 per gram for 22K and Dh545.25 for 24K gold. (Check the most recent gold prices in the UAE, as well as those in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.) In India, domestic gold prices have surged to approximately Rs145,650 per 10 grams for 22K and around Rs158,890 for 24K gold, illustrating the effects of import duties, currency depreciation, and high international rates. The ICICI Bank Global Markets report indicated that Indian gold prices are expected to stay high throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. “We subsequently expect local gold prices to trade in the INR150,000 per ten grams to INR180,000 per ten grams range over the remainder of 2026 assuming an average USD/INR range of 96.00,” the report stated.

For 2027, the bank anticipates that prices will increase further, reaching a range of INR160,000 to INR190,000 per 10 grams. The report indicated that the domestic market has experienced a rally of approximately 20 percent year-to-date. “This sharp growth stems primarily from a 7 per cent depreciation of the Rupee so far this year, rising international rates, and the immediate pass-through of recent customs duty hikes,” the report stated. Analysts have cautioned that Indian prices may increase by an additional 2-3 percent in the short term as the market adapts to the elevated customs duty framework. That has bolstered Dubai’s attractiveness to Indian travellers and expatriates acquiring jewellery, coins, and investment bars. Dubai has traditionally upheld a pricing edge due to its lower taxation, clear pricing frameworks, and vigorous competition among retailers in the emirate’s gold market. The peg of the UAE’s dirham to the US dollar offers enhanced pricing stability in contrast to rupee-denominated purchases, particularly during times of weakness in the Indian currency. Travellers acquiring gold in Dubai must remain cognisant of customs allowances and declaration regulations upon their entry into India. Nevertheless, jewellers indicate that numerous buyers still perceive cost benefits associated with plain gold jewellery and bullion products acquired in the UAE. Dubai gold rates have exhibited volatility throughout 2026, reflecting fluctuations in the global market.

Historical data indicates that 22K gold prices in Dubai surpassed Dh526 per gram earlier this month before declining toward the Dh500 range. Despite recent pullbacks, ICICI Bank Global Markets anticipates that gold will maintain support over the medium term. However, prices may exhibit sideways movement in the near term due to a stronger US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia. “Gold prices can potentially increase as lower oil prices reduce the necessity for numerous rate hikes by central banks, coupled with sustained demand for the physical asset,” the report stated. The bank anticipates that gold will fluctuate within a range of $4,400 to $4,600 per ounce in the short term, while cautioning that prices may temporarily decline to around $4,200 should regional tensions escalate further. Over the longer term, analysts maintain a positive outlook, projecting that gold may increase to between $4,800 and $5,000 per ounce by December 2026, with the possibility of reaching $5,400 to $5,600 by the end of 2027. “The global USD could come under pressure in the medium-term that will increase appetite for non-USD assets,” the report added, citing continued central bank buying and safe-haven demand for bullion. Rising prices are starting to influence gold purchasing behaviours in India.

The report indicated that India experienced an 81 per cent increase in gold import values in April; however, this surge was largely attributed to elevated prices rather than a significant uptick in physical demand. Import volumes experienced a deceleration, registering approximately 30 tonnes in March and April, in contrast to a monthly average of 50 tonnes observed in 2025. For buyers in the UAE, analysts anticipate that Dubai will sustain its comparative pricing edge, as local gold rates are more closely aligned with international spot prices. In contrast, Indian domestic prices are still feeling the effects of increased import duties and the depreciation of the rupee. That divergence is anticipated to maintain the UAE’s appeal for jewellery and bullion acquisitions, especially among travellers in search of reduced premiums, a broader range of products, and more transparent pricing frameworks. Globally, analysts continue to anticipate that gold will stay in a structurally bullish cycle, bolstered by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and enduring safe-haven demand. This outlook persists despite the short-term volatility associated with oil prices and US monetary policy.