Since the onset of the Iran war and Tehran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed,” the market has struggled to quantify the lost crude supply and forecast the price of oil. Initial calculations were straightforward: aggregate all non-Iranian Gulf crude oil exports, approximately 12 million to 15 million barrels a day, and it becomes evident that this represents the largest crisis in history. Accordingly, benchmark Brent crude futures surged to nearly $120 per barrel in early March. Experts cautioned that this was merely the start, as projections of $200 made headlines, raising inflationary worries for both consumers and businesses. Tankers have halted their journeys as Iran’s threats have rendered voyages excessively perilous. The challenge of identifying any tanker attempting to escape has intensified, largely due to U.S. restrictions on satellite imagery in the Gulf and vessels misleadingly broadcasting their locations.

However, tankers have managed to evade detection, with some identified by ship-tracking companies while others remain unnoticed. As more evidence emerges, the market is calculating these volumes to understand the reasons behind oil prices dropping below $90, even with the ongoing conflict in Iran, catching market bulls off guard. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday stated that more than 100 million barrels of oil had traversed the strait as part of what he described as a covert U.S. operation to assist oil tankers. Shipping data firm Kpler estimated that approximately 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude were transported through the Hormuz and Gulf of Oman export channels from the beginning of April to June 10, averaging around 1.9 million barrels per day. “After an initial disruption at the onset of the conflict, flows strengthened as alternative logistics scaled up,” Kpler stated. Among these “alternative logistics” are Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, which have been exporting substantial quantities of crude in tankers with their satellite systems disabled—occasionally in arrangements with Iran and at other times independently, according to trading sources. Those exports contribute to oil flows of approximately 4 to 5 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, which has been shipping from its Red Sea port of Yanbu since March.

The International Energy Agency in its latest report estimated that Gulf supply was down by 14 million barrels per day, or around 14% of world supply. However, the estimate may be nearer to 5 to 6 million barrels per day, according to sources, who referenced internal assessments that indicate producers are discovering methods to maintain the flow of cargoes. Iraqi exports are presently 2.5 to 3.0 million barrels per day below the normal levels, while Kuwait’s exports have decreased by approximately 1.5 million barrels. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have each seen a reduction of around 0.5 million barrels, based on calculations from one of the sources. External factors, including a surge in U.S. oil exports, a historic release of 400 million barrels from international emergency stocks, and restrained demand from China, have played a significant role in tempering the oil market. Considering the decline in Chinese demand, the existing market deficit might be approximately 2 million barrels, according to one of the sources. It’s an indication that commercial oil markets are sufficiently supplied for now given all the ways the world has adapted to the shock,” said Bjarne ‌Schieldrop.

Despite the market’s adaptations, its workarounds have their limits, and the global oil reserves are depleting, heightening the risk of potential price surges. Stockpiles in the largest economies globally are approaching their lowest levels since at least 2003, constrained at an unprecedented rate due to the diminished output from the Gulf, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday. U.S. inventories are declining rapidly and currently total 351 million barrels across two major U.S. hubs, according to a report. The “danger zone” for these stocks begins at approximately 325 million barrels, it stated. “As inventories drop below this threshold, the market becomes increasingly vulnerable to logistical bottlenecks and price ​spikes,” it said.